By Justin Mark, SGPN Football Handicapper
Now that is how we thought the Eagles should look. A whopping total of 496 yards for the offense and a pressuring defense that forces turnovers. Jalen Hurts ran for two touchdowns while throwing for another. He had only five incompletions on his way to 333 yards. It was also nice to see receivers other than A.J. Brown step up with Dallas Goedert having five catches for 82 yards and Devonta Smith seven for 80.
Hopefully, you joined me last week as we went 3-1. I hit on the Eagles covering the spread but missed on the over as the Birds bottled up the Vikings from the very start. My prop bet also hit as I suggested taking Jalen Hurts over 39.5 rushing yards. Right before the game started his rushing total was set at 39.5 and he finished with 57 rushing The bonus bet of Falcons +10.5 also came in. Now the Eagles look to roll to 3-0 as I also look to have an undefeated week.
Key Defensive Matchup
Last week I predicted the Eagles would be playing a safety above Justin Jefferson and that’s exactly what they did. This week will be a little more difficult as the Commanders have multiple receivers that stay involved and make big plays. Curtis Samuel has been the primary target, but Terry McLaurin and rookie Jahan Dotson (Penn State) have also made big plays. The Commanders have run three wide-receiver sets on 82% of their snaps, meaning the entire defensive backfield will need to be at their best. The way to slow the offense will be to use unique blitz schemes to pressure Carson Wentz. Wentz has four turnovers in two games and the Eagles will look to force a couple more.
Key Offensive Matchup
The offense will look to move the ball the same way they have through two games — on the ground. The Eagles lead the league in points per game and are second in rushing yards per game. On the other hand, the Commanders’ defense is the 28th worst in rushing yards allowed. This should mean the Eagles will be able to run the ball over the Commanders. When they can’t, they can always rely on their 7th ranked passing yards per game offense against the Commanders’ 21st ranked passing yards allowed per game defense.
The Pick
While it’s very difficult to not only win a divisional matchup on the road, it will be even more difficult to cover the 6.5 spread. However, the Eagles have been on a roll and their offense is one of the best in the leagues. Looking at lines on WynnBet This week I’m taking the Eagles to cover the spread of -6.5 and over 47.5 points.
Bonus Prop Bets
This week, one of my favorite prop bets is “Eagles’ Team Total Over 27.5 points”. The Eagles are scoring 31 points per game, tied for fourth in the league, and the Commanders are allowing 29 points per game. The Eagles have also gone over their team total 13 times in the last 15 games against teams with a turnover differential of worse than -0.65 turnovers a game. The Commanders have averaged two turnovers a game with three interceptions and a fumble and have a turnover differential of -3.
Also, until the books move Hurts’ rushing total over 39.5 yards, I’d continue to take the over on his rushing total. In fact, I’d keep taking it up to at least 45 rushing yards. He totaled 90 yards on the ground in Week 1 and 57 in Week 2. You can find all my picks and the rest of the SGPN crew’s picks here.
Justin Mark is co-host of SGPN Fantasy Football’s show “Old-Fashioned Football” and a writer for the Sports Gambling Podcast. Follow him on Twitter @JMarkFootball and The Sports Gambling Podcast @GamblingPodcast.
Credit: Icon Sportswire (Wentz with teammates)